Am I Early, Or Am I Wrong?

Life is full of paradoxes. 

Stay safe. Live a little.

Be patient. Act now.

Be kind. Be honest.

Trust yourself. Seek advice.

Say yes more. Guard your time.

Enjoy the moment. Document everything.

Money isn’t everything. Do you know how much rent is?!

And as Tyler Durden once wondered while trying to access the aisle from a window seat, “Do I give you the crotch or the butt” on the way by?

But the one I keep thinking the most about is: Have conviction vs. Be adaptable.

Seems like oil and water. Which one is more important? Well, like all the examples above…it depends on the situation.

Ugh. Does this mean I need to both act and reflect on things, Bassam?

Sadly, yes. Because conviction without humility provides as much flexibility as a fossil, and adaptability without principles has the backbone of an invertebrate.

Those afflicted with summit fever in a whiteout sure do have some conviction, but perhaps it would be best to adapt the goals for the day and head back down the mountain.

Customer feedback can help you adapt, but changing your product after every email you get is a fool's errand.

Conviction is powerful when:

• Your values are clear.

• The downside is survivable.

• The environment is stable enough that persistence compounds.

Adaptability is powerful when:

• New information materially changes the landscape.

• The cost of being wrong is asymmetric.

• Identity is distorting judgment.

I know: “stable enough” and “materially changes” are hard to quantify.

Here are six questions I’ve found useful — personally and with clients — when trying to decide whether to hold or to pivot.

1. Is this belief rooted in values or ego?

If abandoning the position would violate a core value (integrity, family, faith, long-term purpose), conviction may be appropriate. If abandoning it would mostly bruise your pride or make you look inconsistent, that’s ego protecting itself.

Ask: If no one knew about this decision, would I still feel the same way?

That question strips away performance.

2. What evidence would change my mind?

If the honest answer is “nothing,” you don’t have conviction — you have dogma.

Healthy conviction has conditions. It can articulate:

• What would need to be true for me to reconsider?

• What signal would tell me the world has changed?

If you can’t define those in advance, you’re climbing in a blizzard with no weather report.

3. Am I early… or am I wrong?

There’s a big difference.

Some decisions require endurance before payoff (careers, relationships, businesses). Quitting too early guarantees failure.

But sometimes “I just need to push through” is a story we tell ourselves to avoid confronting that the premise was flawed.

Ask: Is the original thesis still intact, or have the underlying assumptions changed?

Conviction should attach to a thesis, not to stubbornness.

4. What is the cost of being wrong?

Summit fever happens when people ignore deteriorating conditions because turning back feels like defeat.

The key question isn’t “Do I believe in this?”

It’s “If I’m wrong, how bad does this get?”

When the downside is catastrophic or irreversible, adaptability is wisdom. When the downside is uncomfortable but survivable, conviction may be worth the risk.

5. Am I protecting consistency… or pursuing truth?

Humans hate inconsistency. It threatens our identity. But consistency and correctness are not the same thing.

Ask: If I encountered this exact situation for the first time today, would I choose the same path?

That question separates legacy momentum from fresh judgment.

6. Is this season permanent?

Sometimes we need conviction because we’re in a season that requires grit. Other times we mistake a season for a life sentence.

Ask: Am I adapting to new information? Or am I just tired?

Ask: Is this a storm to endure, or a climate that has permanently shifted?

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So, conviction or adaptability? Which one is it? Well, it’s “both” “and.”

Have a point of view, but leave the door unlocked.

I like the image of holding a coin. You can hold a coin with your fist clenched around it, or you can hold it with your palm open.

The former does provide consistency, but consistency is not the same as wisdom. 

The latter allows you to be firm while reassessing things from different angles.

After changing careers multiple times, I know how scary it can be of looking like a flip flopper in life, but just because you eventually changed your mind doesn’t mean you were lying to yourself at the beginning.

Navigating a crossroads starts with better questions, not louder certainty.